The Foreign Urban Threat Analysis Project

Publication Date


Committee Chair

Mark P. Kumler, Ph.D.

Committee Members

Karen K. Kemp, Ph.D.
Bryan Baker, Ph.D.


The goal of this project was to create a pilot GIS application for the purpose of providing U.S and Allied agencies and organizations critical geographic information to help protect strategic and tactical operations within a hostile foreign city. This application, known as the Foreign Urban Threat Analysis Project (FUTAP), utilizes web GIS applications as well as Flash animation to convey local threat information to its users over the Internet. Geographic information portrayed in the FUTAP was created using temporal and spatial analysis methods based on crime mapping techniques used in Intelligence-Led Policing. These techniques included hot spot mapping, inverse distance weighting, central mean analysis, and morphological analysis. Analysis was applied to monthly, quarterly and annual data over a test area. Analysis results were used to create a series of animated slide shows that dynamically display violence trends within the city. Slide shows are designed specifically as a decision making tool to help managers maintain strategic operations within the city. For technicians, the FUTAP hosts two ArcIMS pages where users can interact and download data layers. These pages directly support daily tactical operations within the city. A successful demonstration of the FUTAP showing the true power of this application is its ability to concisely communicate detailed threat analysis information quickly, allowing immediate responses by U.S. and Allied organizations facing imminent danger.

Full text is available at the University of Redlands